Noesis Alea Trading Blog

Hello traders, Today, we’ll see how you can use another forex pair — EUR/GBP — to help you time your entries on both GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY. If you trade the forex market, you already know that some pairs have positive or negative correlations. Some move together, while others move in opposite directions. GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY are highly correlated. Most of the time, they move in the same direction and show similar structures. Why? 1. The pound and the euro are both European currencies. 2. They are influenced by similar macroeconomic drivers. 3. They are both trading against the Japanese yen. 4. The yen reacts strongly to global risk sentiment (Risk-On / Risk-Off). So when global sentiment shifts, both pairs often move together. But here’s where it gets interesting. The Key Insight: EUR/GBP Shows Relative Strength EUR/GBP tells you which European currency is stronger right now. -  If EUR/GBP is bullish → the euro is stronger than the pound. - If EUR/GBP is bearish → the pound is...

  Hello traders, if you trade the forex market, you’ve definitely seen the Japanese yen fall. Most XXX/JPY pairs have exploded to the upside over the past month. Here’s an example on some yen pairs: Why is the yen so weak right now? The catalyst was at first political.  Everything began with the recent election for Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, followed closely by the most recent  Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting . The market expected a more aggressive, proactive stance against inflation and yen weakness.  Instead, the new leadership signaled: More fiscal expansion  under Sanae Takaichi No immediate urgency  to address the weak yen More support for domestic consumption instead of currency stabilit y Fiscal expansion  weakens the currency  (larger deficits, more borrowing, more stimulus). Combine that with a cautious central bank → investors sell JPY. At the last BOJ meeting,  Rates were left unchanged  (as expected).  Two bo...

Hello traders, Hope you all had a great trading week. Personally, mine was amazing. This Friday, we saw huge downside moves across multiple assets to close the week and many newer traders were asking: “Why does this sometimes happen?” In this article, we’re going to talk about an important concept that can seriously elevate your game during trending weeks. It will help you understand how institutions position themselves, and it will sharpen your market intuition. It took me a while to internalize it, but once you see it clearly, certain patterns become obvious.  Square Up day When an asset is trending all week, we often have on Friday a “square up” from institutions. Market makers are not entering the same way we are on the market, they have to take their profits and close their most toxic positions before the week ends to rebalance their portfolio to not be to exposed on one side. This is why on Fridays we can see huge pullbacks or we can even come around the same level we were at...

Storytime This week, I had my first bad week since I started my trading journal on the Discord server. I made a lot of mistakes — mainly due to psychology. Every time you take the time to look back and reflect on your trading, you realize that everything is in your head. And honestly, I find that both funny and fascinating at the same time.  Anyway, I wanted to share how, on November 4th, I completely self-destroyed myself. It’ll show you exactly the kind of shit you want to avoid. So, I called a trade at 7:55 AM, saying I wanted to sell gold. The reason was that around 5 AM, I  was already seeing the dollar index (DXY) appreciating a lot that day, and gold couldn’t break the top of the range. There was also a ton of liquidity sitting at the trendline touches, and price clearly wasn’t interested in rebounding from it again — which made me think XAU would go lower toward 4020, the Fibonacci support of the range. For now, everything seems reasonable. But the truth is that even i...

Fooled by Randomness By Nassim Nicholas Taleb – Reflections from a Mathematician/Trader’s Perspective I recently started the Incerto series — a five-book collection by trader and mathematician Nassim Nicholas Taleb that explores uncertainty, risk, and decision-making. I just finished the first book, “Fooled by Randomness.” Although it isn’t 100% about trading, here are three powerful insights I took from it that can deeply help us as traders. Insight 1: Your brain reacts to changes, not absolutes Taleb explains that humans don’t react to their total accumulated wealth , but rather to changes in that wealth relative to a reference point — the number they’re anchored to. This psychological bias affects traders constantly. It’s one of the main reasons many deviate from their plan and blow their accounts. Example: imagine you have a $500,000 trading account . After losing four trades in a row, your balance drops to $475,000 . Instead of focusing on the $475k you still have , ...

  October 19, 2025 Gold Weekly Analysis (2-minute read) Overview The rally in gold has been nothing short of unstoppable. Every day, market participants keep wondering what could possibly slow it down — yet week after week, gold continues to surge higher. Macro Context This relentless move isn’t coming out of nowhere. Several powerful narratives are driving the current bullish momentum: Persistent uncertainty surrounding global growth and U.S. politics. The Federal Reserve’s easing cycle , which continues to weaken the dollar. Softer U.S. economic data suggesting slowing momentum. Ongoing geopolitical tensions , including renewed U.S.–China trade friction and Trump’s unpredictable behavior. The U.S. government shutdown , which is delaying key data releases and amplifying uncertainty. Central banks diversifying their reserves away from the dollar and into commodities like gold. With this combination of factors — and a clear lack of bearish catalysts — ...