Gold to $4,500 This Week

-

 October 19, 2025

Gold Weekly Analysis (2-minute read)

Overview

The rally in gold has been nothing short of unstoppable. Every day, market participants keep wondering what could possibly slow it down — yet week after week, gold continues to surge higher.


Macro Context

This relentless move isn’t coming out of nowhere. Several powerful narratives are driving the current bullish momentum:

  • Persistent uncertainty surrounding global growth and U.S. politics.

  • The Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, which continues to weaken the dollar.

  • Softer U.S. economic data suggesting slowing momentum.

  • Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including renewed U.S.–China trade friction and Trump’s unpredictable behavior.

  • The U.S. government shutdown, which is delaying key data releases and amplifying uncertainty.

  • Central banks diversifying their reserves away from the dollar and into commodities like gold.

With this combination of factors — and a clear lack of bearish catalysts — gold remains fundamentally tilted to the upside unless a major news event shifts the narrative.

Price Outlook

Currently trading near $4,246, gold could easily test the $4,500 level in the coming week if volatility remains high and the macro backdrop doesn’t change.
The market is now in price discovery mode — aside from psychological round numbers like $4,500 and $5,000, there are no clear resistance levels. Those areas could, however, trigger profit-taking once reached.

Technical Outlook

Daily Chart
The bullish trend remains fully intact. There isn’t much to add — the price action speaks for itself.


4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour structure also confirms the ongoing bullish trend. On Friday, gold saw a minor pullback without any real catalyst — likely simple profit-taking before the weekend. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement acted as support, and the trend may now resume toward the –27% extension, aligning with the $4,500 psychological level.


1-Hour Chart
The 1-hour chart mirrors the same bullish structure. A confluence appears near the $4,200 support zone, where the 61.8% retracement of the hourly move aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the 4-hour structure. Buyers have already stepped in around this level, suggesting the rally could continue.
If that zone fails to hold, a deeper correction toward $4,100 is possible before any new leg higher.


Forecast

Overall, probabilities remain tilted to the upside for the upcoming week.
Stick to your plan, trade with discipline — and good luck in the week ahead.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Trading the US-IRAN War: Patterns, Lessons, Why I had one of my best trading month ever

-
Image
  Hello traders, div]:bg-bg-000/50 [&_pre>div]:border-0.5 [&_pre>div]:border-border-400 [&_.ignore-pre-bg>div]:bg-transparent [&_.standard-markdown_:is(p,blockquote,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6)]:pl-2 [&_.standard-markdown_:is(p,blockquote,ul,ol,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6)]:pr-8 [&_.progressive-markdown_:is(p,blockquote,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6)]:pl-2 [&_.progressive-markdown_:is(p,blockquote,ul,ol,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6)]:pr-8"> _*]:min-w-0 gap-3 standard-markdown"> The US-Israel-Iran conflict has now been in the spotlight of the market for a little over a month. The market is in a phase where it is entirely headline-driven. Typical data releases that normally move markets — NFP, CPI, PMI — don't really matter right now. Nobody cares about a jobs number when the Strait of Hormuz is closed and a US president is threatening to bomb power plants on Truth Social at 11pm. This is personally the first conflict I've traded and followed as a serious full-time tra...
Read more

Gold to 4,000 this month?

-
Image
Gold Weekly Analysis (2 min read) Overview Gold has been performing exceptionally well since the beginning of the year. After a strong bullish rally from January to April, the market entered a consolidation phase that lasted from late April until the end of August. With no major bearish catalysts during that period, bullish momentum resumed at the end of August — leading to one of the strongest performing months in September. Interestingly, September is usually not a strong month for gold, which makes this rally particularly notable. Macro Context Uncertainty, the Fed’s current easing stance, weaker U.S. economic conditions, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and Trump’s unpredictable behavior are all contributing to sustained bullish pressure on gold. For now, the upside narrative remains intact, and buyers continue to dominate. Price Outlook Currently trading around $3,885 , gold could easily test the $4,000 level in the near term. However, with the ongoing U.S. government shutdown ...
Read more

How Psychology Made Me Close a Good Trade to Take a Bad One

-
Image
Storytime This week, I had my first bad week since I started my trading journal on the Discord server. I made a lot of mistakes — mainly due to psychology. Every time you take the time to look back and reflect on your trading, you realize that everything is in your head. And honestly, I find that both funny and fascinating at the same time.  Anyway, I wanted to share how, on November 4th, I completely self-destroyed myself. It’ll show you exactly the kind of shit you want to avoid. So, I called a trade at 7:55 AM, saying I wanted to sell gold. The reason was that around 5 AM, I  was already seeing the dollar index (DXY) appreciating a lot that day, and gold couldn’t break the top of the range. There was also a ton of liquidity sitting at the trendline touches, and price clearly wasn’t interested in rebounding from it again — which made me think XAU would go lower toward 4020, the Fibonacci support of the range. For now, everything seems reasonable. But the truth is that even i...
Read more